Expected Istanbul Earthquake


Scene 1 :
Expected Istanbul Earthquake

Scene 2 :
In our presentation,
We will talk about Expected Istanbul Earthquake with its 5 sub-topics :
  1. Turkey and Earthquake
  2. History of Istanbul Earthquakes
  3. Coming Earthquake
  4. Expected Istanbul Earthquake Scenario
  5. The Reasons of This Unbelievable Numbers

Scene 3 :
Turkey and Earthquake

Turkey exists on The Mediterranean – Himalayas Earthquake Zone which is one of the main earthquake areas in respect of their scales and damages.

Turkey is affected by three plates : Eurasia, African and Arabian Plates.

African and Arabian Plates push Anatolia upward quickly. Also, Eurasia Plate pushes downward. This motion is slow because Eurasia Plate is a very big landscape. These movements cause a tension on North Anatolian Fault Zone and this tension is released with an earthquake.

Scene 4 – 5 :
History of Istanbul Earthquakes

These images show us the historical big earthquakes of Istanbul. We want to give extra information about these images because the pre – 20th century earthquakes are essential to assess fault inter-event times, despite their uncertainties.

These big earthquakes destroyed Istanbul Area in 1509, 1719, 1754, May 1766, August 1766, 1894, 1912 and the last ones on August 17th 1999 and October 12th 1999.

Scene 6 :
Coming Earthquake

As can be seen from the image, the earthquakes have moved westwards since 1939, Erzincan Earthquake, therefore we can clearly say that the last point of these movements through the North Anatolian Fault is Marmara Region and Istanbul.

Scene 7 :
Scenario of Expected Earthquake

Experts claim that August 17th, 1999 earthquake has triggered the this last point of North Anatolian Fault. Acccording to scenario, this piece of fault on the Marmara Sea region will release its tension and this will cause an earthquake whose magnitude is approximately 7.5 on the Richter scale.

Scene 8 :
Qualitative Area of Scenario Earthquake

Earthquakes are evaluated with respect to two different quantities. These are magnitude and qualitatively. Qualitatively assessment is based on perception of people and the level of damage done by an earthquake. This map shows us that southern of Istanbul will be extremely damaged by this expected earthquake. We should use numbers so that we can effectively explain and understand the consequences of this possible earthquake.

Scene 9 : 
The Scenerio With Numbers - 1

According to the Istanbul Governship Office;
  • Death Toll : ~ 50,000 people
  • Injured : ~ 200.000 people
  • Homeless : ~ 200,000 families
  • Heavily damaged buildings : ~ 50,000
  • Basic Economic Loss : ~ 20 Billion $
  • Total Economic Loss : ~ 150 Billion $

Scene 10 :
The Scenerio With Numbers - 2
  • Lack of transportation is sourced by the heavy damages on the E5 and TEM highways
  • 8% of the public facilities will be heavily damaged
  • 20 out of 460 bridges have high possibility of collapse
  • A need for ~ 100,000 people for rescue operations
Scene 11 :
Why This Unbelievable Numbers?
Maybe Money...

Scene 12 :
Why This Unbelievable Numbers?
Maybe Laws...

Scene 13 :
Why This Unbelievable Numbers?
Maybe Unconsciousness...


Scene 14 :
Why This Unbelievable Numbers?
Maybe Ignorance...

Do Not Forget That Knowledge Saves Life!...

Scene 15 :
Thank You for Reading...

Earthquake Educator
Oguz Kaan Cagatay Kilinc

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